There are a mere 18 more sleeps until the Massanutten Mountain Trails 100
21. That is the number of people I need to drop from the entrants or wait list to ensure I get to run.
To finish the 101.7 mile course within the 36 hour limit I would need to average a 21:14 pace.
That pace would not however keep me ahead of rolling aid station cutoffs.
I read once that to calculate an estimated finish time from a
50 to a 100 mile event
you use a factor of 1.5.
BRR 50 averaged a 13:12 pace.
13:12 x 1.5 = 19.68
BRR 50 doesn't list it's elevation change.
It's course has many repeated inclines and declines of around 200 feet.
MTT 100 has climbs totaling 16,000 feet.
68% of the 195 runners finished the 101.7 miles in 2011
32%
the percentage of people who attempted
MMT 100 in 2011 and
FAILED
Only 18 more sleeps until I get the chance to find out which one of those groups I belong to.
But really. Deep breath. No pressure.
I hope you get a chance to run this race. I know you will do well!
ReplyDeleteI don't know how you handle the not knowing. I am jittery for you! I will keep my fingers crossed and really hope you get to run and tell your story!
ReplyDeleteI really hope you get in. You are geared for a 100 miler and it would be awesome if you could run this. I'm on a few waiting lists myself.
ReplyDeleteThe math geek that I am loved this post. You are going to get in and then you are going to crush it. I know it. Also, check out my blog today, a giveaway right up your alley ...
ReplyDeleteOh man, I hope you find out soon if you get in!
ReplyDeleteFingers very crossed for you, 'cause I KNOW you can do it!
ReplyDeleteFingers and toes crossed that you get that entry!
ReplyDelete